The Skill of Poker

A lot of people think poker is a form of gambling. They don't see that it is a skill game. The hand above demonstrates the skill of poker. Phil Hellmuth, a professional, makes a great fold in this hand. It's a situation that most players in the world will go broke on. I'd say that 98% of people will push all-in with Phil's hand. 1.9999% of players will call down, losing most of their chips on that hand. Phil is one of the top players in the history of the game (he has 11 championships in the World Series of Poker, which is a record), but I'm going to explain how this fold is possible.

Phil raised with a very good hand, Ace-King (AK). AK is the best drawing hand in poker. It is ahead of every unpaired hand (there are 169 hold em starting hands, only 13 of which are pairs), is about 49% to win against pocket 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s, Jacks, and Queens. It is only dominated by pocket Kings and pocket Aces.

The other player in the hand re-raised with the BEST starting hand in poker: pocket Aces (AA). Aces dominate every starting hand by about 4:1. AA also crushes any unpaired starting hand with an Ace in it (except of course, if someone else also has AA). Against an unsuited Ace-King, Aces are 11.5 to 1 favorites to win the hand. Against Ace-King suited, AA is about 8:1 favorite to win.

Phil finds himself in an unlucky situation. He has a great starting hand, but is absolutely dominated by his opponent. This is worse than having a bad starting hand. Bad hands are easy to fold. Hands like AK are not easy to fold.

Phil raises to 1,500 in chips, his opponent re-raises to 3,000. This is a very small raise. In poker, weak means strong, and strong means weak. Small raises like this one typically mean an opponent is very strong. Furthermore, there are people left to act after the re-raise. So the opponent makes a small raise against Phil, with people behind him still left to make decisions. This denotes even more strength. The opponent is betting small, begging to get a call from Phil, or a re-raise from someone behind him. And why not, with Aces, you KNOW you have the best hand.

Everyone else folds, and Phil is put to a decision. By now, he has limited his opponent's hand strength. His opponent must have a high pocket pair in order to make a small raise with people behind him still to act. His range is probably pocket tens, or better. But as I said earlier, Ace-King has nearly a 50% chance to win against pocket tens, Jacks, or Queens.

At this point, the pot is 5,500 chips. Phil only needs to put in 1,500 chips in order to see a flop and continue the hand. He is getting 3.6667 to 1 pot odds in order to make the call with Ace-King.

Pot odds are a big part of poker. Basically, pot odds are how much is in the pot divided by how much it costs you to call. If there is 200 in a pot, and it costs you 100 to call, you are getting 2 to 1 pot odds.

Calculating pot odds may be easy, but making decisions based on them is not. Phil is getting very good odds with his hand, nearly 4:1. If he thinks his opponent has a pair like tens, Jacks, or Queens, Phil will win slightly less than half the time, which requires slightly higher than 1:1 pot odds. But here's the thing, Phil wins half the time if the hand goes to a river. Ace-King only hits the flop one out of three times, so he needs 2:1 pot odds or better in order to call, if he thinks his opponent has a pair smaller than Kings. But he's getting 3.7:1 pot odds, which are much better than 2:1. So he calls.

Not only is Phil getting good odds, his table image is at stake. If he allows someone to make a small raise and push hi out of a hand, other players might attempt to do it later on. In No-Limit hold em, it is vital to not let other players think they can bully you. A good player is a bully. A bad player gets bullied. If Phil folds before the flop, other players might make similar moves with absolutely nothing and either get Phil to fold the best hand, or force him to make tougher decisions. Also, in the back of Phil's mind will be the notion that his future opponents might be trying to bluff him, which will mean that their range of hands will be much wider.

Phil makes the call, and it isn't a horrible call. He has no idea that he's only 7% to win the hand. But he maintains his image, and sees a flop with a good hand. He hasn't figured out exactly what his opponent has had, but he's narrowed it down to 5 hands (tens, Jacks, Queens, Kings, Aces). Although Phil is a 13:1 underdog, he has the advantage. He has a very good idea as to what his opponent is holding. Knowing the strength of your opponents hand is EVERYTHING in no-limit.

Phil is out of position in this hand. Position is the order of betting. The dealer button determines position each hand. If you are first to act, you are out of position. If you are last to act, you are in position. You want to be in position because you see what your opponents do before you ever have to act. Last to act is the best position to bluff, and is the best position to maximize the value of a strong hand. Example: you have Queen-Jack and the flop comes Ten-9-8, giving you the best possible hand (a straight). If you're first to act, you might have to check to see if your opponents have a good hand. If you bet, everyone might fold. If you check, everyone might check and get a free card. It might let someone get a free chance to hit a full house and take all your chips. But if you're last and everyone checks, you can realize that everyone is weak, and check to let them get stronger hands so they pay you off. Or if someone bets in front of you, you can figure out what their hand is and raise if you think they have a monster, or call as if you are on a draw, and get paid off BIG TIME

Phil removes position out of the equation by checking in the dark. In other words, he decides what to do on the flop before the flop. Being first to act in this hand, he is at a disadvantage, but his check means that he has forfeited his options and will allow his opponent to act on the flop.

Phil is very good at reading other players, and he knows this. He knows he can check and allow his opponent to make a decision and be able to gauge the strength of his opponent's hand based on that decision. He also figures that if he's up against tens, Jacks, or Queens, his opponent will bet the flop no matter what. This means that if the flop comes with an Ace or King on it, his opponent will bet into Phil when Phil has the winning hand. Phil wants to maximize his good luck if he's fortunate enough to flop an Ace or King.

The flop comes 4-4-Ace, which is a great flop for both hands. Typically in poker, this means someone will win big and someone will lose big. Phil has Aces and fours with the best possible kicker. The only hands that beat him are hands with a 4, and pocket Aces. Since Phil has already narrowed down his opponent's hand to tens, Jacks, Queens, Kings, or Aces, he can safely eliminate the possibility that his opponent has a 4. So all he has to worry about is AA.

His opponent flops Aces full of fours. The only hand that beats him is pocket fours (four of a kind). The standard thing to do with a full house this strong (remember, Aces full of fours is the 33rd best 5 card hand in poker, only 9 hands behind quad 2s, only 22 hands behind a 5 high straight flush) is to check. This is slow-playing. You have a monstrous hand, and you want to get action by feigning weakness, checking, and hoping your opponent "catches up" and also makes a strong hand (that doesn't beat your monster), or hoping your opponent bluffs you.

Slow-playing is a standard thing with Aces full. But it's too standard. When someone raises preflop THEN checks a flop, it can be somewhat alarming. Remember, weak actions=strong hands, strong actions=weak hands.

When his opponent checks, Phil's mind begins to race. If his opponent has tens, Jacks, Queens, or Kings, Phil has the best hand. However, a player typically won't slow down with such large hands even if an Ace is out there. Most aggressive players will put out a feeler bet to try to gauge if their opponent has an Ace. Many players will still check there, and pray their opponent doesn't bet. Phil is now very confused about this hand. He has Aces and fours. He has Kings, Queens, Jacks, and Tens beat. The only hand in his opponent's range that beats him is pocket Aces. But in order for his opponent to have pocket Aces, he has to have the LAST TWO Aces in the deck. Possible, but unlikely.

Here's a difference between a cash game and a tournament. In cash games, you can rebuy and continue playing. In tournaments, if you lose all your chips, you lose; the tournament ends for you. In a cash game, Phil might play this hand differently, and might go broke. He might say to himself "if he has the last two Aces in the deck, oh well. Most likely, he doesn't so I'll push all-in." But in this tournament, Phil's #1 goal is to protect his chips.

The turn is a Queen, which is a good "getaway card" for Phil. Given the situation, he needs all the help he can get to escape this hand with his chip stack intact. The turn means that another hand in his opponent's range (pocket Queens) now has him beat. Phil checks, leaving his opponent with a decision.

His opponent bets 10,000. This is an overbet. It is larger than the pot (which is a little over 7,000 at this point). In no-limit, the ideal bets are usually around 2/3 to 3/4 the size of the pot.

Typically, an overbet means two things. It's either a bluff, or it's a bet disguised as a bluff.

This is an absolutely HORRIBLE bet made by Phil's opponent. He's trying to make it seems as though he's bluffing, AFTER he's tried to make it seem as though he's got nothing with his check on the flop. He's made contradictory actions in the hand. He's acted weakly and then strongly. This is a very confusing action. But what adds clarity is that it is INTENTIONALLY confusing. By now, Phil has realized that his opponent is trying to confuse him.

The hands that Phil has beat are tens, Jacks, and Kings. What Phil is probably thinking is: "If he had tens, Jacks, or Kings, why would he be trying to make it seems as though he was bluffing with an Ace on the board?"

Just ask yourself, if you had pocket Kings, and an Ace comes on the board, are you going to bet nearly twice the pot? Are you going to try to make it seem as though you have nothing? Why would you with an Ace out there? If your opponent has the Ace, he'll call you or raise you. If he DOESN'T have the Ace, but detects weakness, he will raise you. You're putting your opponent to a decision he will make if he has you beat AND if he doesn't have you beat. This leaves you completely lost in the hand.

Let's say Phil's opponent really did have KK and made the 10,000 chip bet. Phil's a smart and aggressive player. He re-raises the opponent. Now, he'll re-raise with an Ace AND with nothing. So when he re-raises, you're left with the unenviable task of trying to get a read on a world champion poker player based on nothing but instinct.

The bet also gives Phil horrible pot odds. He has to call 10,000 in order to win 17,000. That's 1.7:1 right there. That isn't all that good for pot odds. Furthermore, Phil might have to call ANOTHER bet on the river.

Phil's also getting terrible implied odds. Implied odds are a bit more intuitive than pot odds. Implied odds are basically pot odds, plus how much more you think you can make if you either have the winning hand or hit a card to make the winning hand. If Phil is up against Kings, Jacks, or tens, and calls the 10,000 chip bet, his opponent will most likely slow down on the river and either fold if Phil bets, or check if Phil checks. The only way more chips are going into the pot on the river is if his opponent has pocket Aces (which will beat him), his opponent has pocket Queens (which have him dominated right now. Phil wins with an Ace on the turn against QQ, but it means he has to call and hope for one of 2 cards left in the deck to come out), or is opponent has tens, Jacks, or Kings, and a ten, Jack, or King hits (which will beat him).

Phil knows that if he calls the 10,000 chip bet, the only way he is going to make more chips is if his opponent has pocket Queens, and Phil gets extremely lucky. Otherwise, he will make the 17,000 chips already in the pot, or lose chips. He'll also be committed to call a small bet on the river if his opponent has AA or QQ.

The fact that Phil's opponent goes from checking to overbetting tells Phil two things: His opponent either had him beat on the flop with Aces, or he hit the Queen and has him beat. No sane player would act this way with KK, JJ, or tens, the only hands Phil has beat.

Phil makes a great fold and saves his chips. He played the hand intelligently. He paid more attention to what his opponent had, as opposed to what he himself had. By doing so, he saved himself. And he didn't need much reading ability to figure out his opponent's hand. He just thought carefully, constructed a preflop range, used the range to reduce the possible hands he was up against, and made a correct decision. Meanwhile, his opponent had no clue he was up against Ace-King. Had his opponent known this, he could have bet the flop, or bet smaller on the turn, trying to represent pocket Kings, or maybe Ace-Jack. Instead, he shifted into low gear then all of a sudden shifted into 6th, going from checking to overbetting. He tried to confuse Phil about the strength of his hand, not realizing that Phil was not fooled, and if anything, was convinced of his opponent's hand by his attempts to befuddle him.

Phil also gets his opponent to talk to him. They don't really talk about the hand that much, but Phil gets information by getting his opponent to speak. Like an idiot, his opponent surrenders free information by opening his mouth and talking.

Poker is a game of luck. To win any hand requires luck. The skill in poker is to maximize the value of good luck and minimize the damage of bad luck. In this hand, we see how Phil Hellmuth minimized the damage of a very unlucky situation, and his opponent failed to maximize the value of a very lucky situation.

The End

PS: I could make this fold. I don't make it 100% of the time, but I'm capable of it. I'm good.

100,000 Miles

Tonight at mile marker 65 on Interstate 81 South in Preble, NY, on the shores of Tully Lake, my car's odometer reached 100,000 miles. My car is about 44 months old. His name is King Pedro (officially Pedro Mk. II), and he's a 2004 Chevrolet Impala SS, Indianapolis Edition.

King Pedro and I have been through a lot. Snow storms, blinding rain, speeding tickets, upstate New York drivers, and Rhode Island kamikazes. We've been to Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New York, and Ontario. I remember the day when I reached his governor, a restrictive part of an engine that shuts down the throttle when a maximum speed is reached. It was 125 MPH. But both King Pedro and I know he can go faster if the governor were removed.

We've been in three low speed accidents, but the only damaging one was when my rear view mirror got broke. We had that incessant low tire pressure problem a few years ago, and the speedometer has broken three times.

But he's a good car. He's the best car. He's fast, he can turn well, he has great pickup, he's tough, he gets good mileage, and he can drive wicked good in the snow.

I never thought I'd be able to love an inanimate object, but I love King Pedro.

So what's next for us? Back home to Massachusetts in two weeks, which means trips to Maine and Rhode Island. We need to get a new set of tires for King Pedro, and he needs a few small repairs. Eventually, he'll need a new engine. If I ever make a really good sum of money in some way, I'd like to fix his broken fog light. I'd like to get some new wheels, deluxe the interior, get a V8, and maybe even put some flashing blue lights into my headlight clusters. I can't tell you how many people I've wanted to turn on police lights for on the road. Scare the shit out of them.

I love you, King Pedro!

300

So I illegally downloaded and watched 300 the other day. It probably would have been better to see it in theatres with the sound layering (blockbuster Hollywood movies have a large number of sound layers, I forget the exact number but it's fucking high), and the actual FILM being screened. But hey, what are you gonna do?

I have to say that I liked it. It was pretty bad ass. It was essentially one long fight scene, repeated over and over again. It grew a bit tiring, but you found yourself rooting for the Spartans. But you don't root for them to live, you root for them to win or die trying. That was pretty bad ass. You don't want to see them surrender. you'd rather watch them die.

It wasn't too complex of a movie, though. I deleted the file right after watching it, because I don't think I'll ever watch it again, unless it's on TV.

Historically, they got the battle of Thermopylae down, at least thematically. There were details that were ignored for cinematic reasons. Let me just say that people who complain about historical inaccuracies in historical fiction should be dragged behind a Buick for 10 miles. It's historical FICTION. In the real battle of Thermopylae, 300 Spartans defended the Hot Gates, but were accompanied by 700 Thespians, and 1,400 other Greeks. But the movie doesn't work so well if you throw in 2,700 other non-Spartans after we've focused on the Spartans for so long.

The battle scenes were pretty cool, then they got a bit old. They had a very Lord of the Rings quality to them, especially when non-humans attacked, like the Persian phantoms, and the gigantic elephants. I was expecting Legolas to come sliding down one of their trunks firing off arrows.

The narration was nice sometimes, but a bit unnecessary at others.

Xerxes was simply too ridiculous, and the movie ventured off into Too Fucking Weird territory way too often, with the piggish priests, and the fucked up monsters, and what the fuck was the deal with the guy who had crab claws for arms?

The best part of the movie would have been when Leonidas yells "THIS IS SPARTA!" and kicks a Persian down a hole. However, I had seen it 1,000,000 times in commercials, so it lost its surprise and spectacle. Once you see the big hole, you know the Persian is going down.

All in all, it was decent, nothing spectacular, but still entertaining. It won't get you thinking that much, but it was fun. Rent it, don't buy it, because once you've seen it once, you've gotten all the entertainment value out of it that you will get.

The South Park episode "D-Yikes" was an hilarious and ingenious satirization of 300. There are a lot of really funny similarities, and the whole premise of the episode is funny just by itself.

Missile Defense

For a few decades now, the US has been noodling with missile defense systems to protect itself against a nuclear attack. And the rest of the world is pissed. Why? Well, imagine being in a room full of people with guns, and you're the only one with a bullet proof vest. Everybody would hate you, because you can shoot them in the chest, but they can't shoot you in the chest.

A missile defense system is a smart idea. If it works, there are no drawbacks for the United States. We'd be able to protect ourselves from nuclear attacks. But there would be drawbacks for the rest of the world. The scales of power would be dramatically tilted in our favor. Of course, nuclear war is not imminent, but you never know. The fact that Russia is getting really pissed at our efforts to establish missile defense is both understandable, and worrisome.

If we have missile defense, Russia's nuclear arsenal would theoretically be obsolete. In other words, they could be attacked by us, but would not be able to attack us. The Cold War is over, but many people conveniently ignore the fact that it wasn't that long ago that Russia was the USSR. People here don't really pay attention to the problems Russia is having in becoming a capitalist democracy. People also don't realize that Russia has an estimated 16,000 nuclear warheads (about half are operational).

The point is, a missile defense system is a tactically defensive weapon. It prevents us (in theory) from being attacked, or minimizes the damage of an attack. But this makes it a strategically offensive weapon.

There's a difference between tactics and strategy. Tactics are small scale methods that apply for an instant. Strategies are larger scale methods that apply for a duration of time. For example, a tactical bomber in World War II would go out and attack individual tanks in the battlefield. And a strategic bomber in WW II would bomb an entire tank factory. Tactics have an immediate impact, strategies take longer but can have much larger impacts. Tactics win battles, strategies win wars.

So the missile defense system is tactically defensive. It can only be used as a defensive weapon. But it gives the holder of the system theoretical immunity to launch nuclear attacks. If the system works, there is no threat of a successful counterattack.

As I said above, a missile defense system is good for the US, but it's horrible for the world. And it isn't just because the US would have an upper hand. Mutual Assured Destruction (Wikipedia Listing) is a fundamental element of nuclear deterrence. In short M.A.D. means that nuclear powers like Russia or the US won't attack each other because both are so loaded with nukes, that neither could possibly survive full-scale nuclear war. But with a working missile defense system, M.A.D. goes out the window. There'd be no deterrent for the US to start a nuclear war. Now, we're not close to that, but you never know what might happen 10, 20, 30, or 200 years down the road.

But there's a solution. Instead of the US constructing its own nuclear defense system, we should be spearheading an effort to construct a global missile defense system. Each country could control their own defensive area. Russia would be able to operate their own system, the US their own, the UK, France, China, and so on. This system would function as a deterrent to any nuclear attack, even an attack by rogue nuclear nations (which are unaffected by the M.A.D. doctrine).

The world will probably never be free of nuclear weapons, but it could be free of the threat of attack if there were an effective global missile defense system. In the history of the world, no weapon has ever been totally banned, benevolently abandoned, or agreed to be dismantled. H0wever, countless different weapons have been forgotten and never used because they are obsolete. A GLOBAL missile defense system can make nuclear arsenals obsolete, but a missile defense system owned and operated by the US, probably shared with NATO but still run by us, does not make nukes obsolete.

Knocked Up

I saw Knocked Up yesterday. Normally, I'm a hater of romantic comedies, but this one was pretty good. It was formulaic (which you expect from a rom-com (HAHAHA, I just invented the next Hollywood buzz word: pronounced Rawm-Cawm)) but it was still hilarious and somewhat romantic. There were moments that made me go "Awww" but that's probably because I'm a big softy at heart. The true strength of this movie, however, was the cast and the hilarity that ensued. The side characters were, without a doubt, the best part of the movie.

Paul Rudd (40 Year Old Virgin, Anchorman, Wet Hot American Summer) was great, absolutely hilarious. If there were an Oscar for best supporting actor in a comedy, he would win, hands down. The guy's just fucking funny. His attitude and the way he delivers his lines are genius.

I wasn't all that familiar with the other supporting actors and actresses, but they were all excellent. The funniest parts of the movie weren't the punchlines you'd see in commercials or trailers, they were lines that needed context to be funny, but were perfectly hilarious within the context of the scene.

It was nice to see the leading man of a romantic comedy not be a gorgeously handsome man. Seth Rogan was decent, nothing too special. To be honest, I never really liked his character, but that's just me. And there were parts of the movie, as his character grew, that seemed way too easy.

Katherine Heigl did a solid job as the love interest. She was much funnier than Rogan, I felt. But maybe her lines were better.

I did have a slight problem with the focus of the film. In the style of The Break-Up and most other contemporary romantic comedies, the movie had two perspectives: the man and the woman. However, the perspective was definitely more on the man. Moreover, Katherine Heigl's character never really did much growing or changing, at least not in a clear way. This irked me a bit, because the movie is more about a guy dealing with impregnating a woman as opposed to a woman dealing with being impregnated. There's a difference there. It's somewhat typical of "Hollywood" films to focus on men dealing with problems, even if they're much bigger problems for the female character. But anyway, that's the film theorist in me deconstructing a movie in a genre that never stands up well to deconstruction.

If you want a laugh, a good laugh, see this movie. I don't know if all the funniness has much staying power, but some of it definitely does, as I woke up laughing about Paul Rudd's character.

Sidenote: I saw a preview for Evan Almighty a quasi-sequel to Bruce Almighty with Morgan Freeman returning in the role of God, and Steve Carrell being the main character. In short, Carrell plays a US Congressman who is told by Freeman that he must build an ark for an impending world destroying flood. So Carrell becomes like Noah, everyone thinks he's crazy, he grows a beard, and pairs of animals follow him around.

Apparently, the producers, and screenwriters never read Genesis 9:11:

"I [God] establish My covenant with you; and all flesh shall never again be cut off by the water of the flood, neither shall there again be a flood to destroy the earth."

I know, Catholic school ruined me, and even though I think the Bible is 100% symbolism and not history, the fact that I know this verse exists, and it's a very important verse, has already destroyed this movie for me.

I also think it's odd that this movie is coming out only a few years after Katrina and the Indian Ocean tidal wave. I would not be at all shocked if this project was supposed to be made earlier, much sooner to 2003's Bruce Almighty but was pushed back due to those disasters (tidal wave in '04, Katrina in '05). That's the bizz for you. The first Spiderman got pushed from winter to summer so they could remove the World Trade Center from the skylines after 9/11, and it wound up having the biggest opening weekend ever. And many other movies with certain types of violence and deconstruction were put on hold because of 9-11.

Middleborough Casino

Dedicated to SandwhichesTime...

The Mashpee Wampanoag tribe (the ones who helped the Pilgrims not starve to death in the 1620s, and one of the many tribes nearly obliterated in King Philip's War of 1675 and 1676) are trying to open a casino in Massachusetts. The proposed casino would be the 3rd in New England. The tribe was just recognized by the Federal government, and has the legal right to build a casino anywhere within a 50 mile radius of their hometown (they have to buy the land, of course). The radius ends just south of Boston. The Mashpee Wampanoags recently purchased a 350 acre piece of land in Middleborough, MA.

Middleborough is about 40 miles south of Boston, a few miles west of Plymouth, and about 25 miles east of Providence. It's a medium sized town with about 20,000 residents. The location is perfect for a casino. Right off of I-495, close to Route 24, and at the end of a Commuter Rail Line. The proposed casino would be more convenient for most Rhode Islanders and eastern Massachusettsicans(?) than going to Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun. It's also right on the way to Cape Cod, which should entice a great deal of vacationers going down the Cape.

But Massachusetts was founded by religious extremists, and that Puritanical morality still permeates much of eastern Mass. culture. People are concerned that a casino will bring in gamblers, who will in turn bring in other vices. The people of Middleborough envision that right after any casino opens, a horde of prostitutes and a few thousand drug peddlers will invade and consume their quaint little town (which is 96% white). Property values might go down, and ethnic people might move in. And we all know that coloreds can't resist a chance at a quick buck. (I'm being sarcastic)

These holier than though suburbanites point to dens of inequity like Atlantic City, conveniently going right past Ledyard, CT (Foxwoods) and Montville, CT (Mohegan Sun) where the only real crime that goes down is the $5 time rake at Foxwoods' $1/$2 No-Limit.

They also forget about the dog track in Raynham, a mere 9 miles away. Gamblers go there to watch and bet on Greyhounds, yet when I went there, the place was sorely lacking for hookers and drug dealers.

A casino could mean big money for the Mashpee Wampanoag, who had their land seized and their population nearly wiped out by many of our ancestors. This is no hand out, this is merely an opportunity for a tribe to regain some power (and viability) that was stolen from them 350 years ago.

This is also an opportunity for Massachusetts to make some dough. Millions and millions of dollars leave the state every year on their way to the Connecticut casinos. This is a chance to keep some of that money here. Like Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, the Mashpee casino will probably have to pay slot machine revenues to the state. Furthermore, the casino will create thousands of jobs.

The debate will go on for some time, but the Mashpee's would like to have their casino in place by 2010. I really hope it happens. It'll be great for Massachusetts, for the Wampanoags, and for me. Middleborough is only 30 miles from my hometown, and the drive is an hour shorter than going to Foxwoods. And the poker room at Foxwoods, although nicely decorated, very large, and teeming with fish; is a wretched place.

After Graduation

Graduation is about 40 days away. So what will I be doing with my B.S. in Cinema & Photography, with a Screenwriting Concentration? I'll be playing poker. The lease on my Ithaca apartment doesn't end until July 31st, so I'll be living here through July. I'll be playing at Turning Stone 3 to 6 times a week, 30 to 100 hours a week. I'm going to try not to hit the tables too hard, though. I'll also be playing online on my "off" days, just to earn a little bit extra.

I've got a decent bankroll of about $3,000. I'd like to build that up a bit this summer. I've been playing really well lately, making good bets, good raises, good folds, good calls. My mind's been clear and my reads have been sound. If things go well at the beginning of summer, I might move up from $100 Max to $300 Max.

If the summer goes well, I'll move back to Norwood and play at Foxwoods. A week long trip to the Stone might be in order for August during the Empire State Championship. At home, I'll probably play more online, especially when the weather gets colder and shittier.

This summer, I'd like to learn how to play limit hold 'em. It seems like a game I could potentially master and be better at than I am at no-limit. The $4/$8 limit game at Foxwoods is said to be particularly juicy.

I'd love to play the $1/$2 NL game at Foxwoods ($300 Max) and pickoff drunk tourists. And mix that in with $4/$8 limit, along with $100 tournaments. If things go well, I can move up to $500 Max, and $10/$20 limit. And then $15/$30 limit, then $20/$40, then $30/$60, then $50/$100, and so on.

I also want to master stud and Omaha. These are great games because few people know how to play them properly, particularly pot-limit Omaha hi/lo. Foxwoods has a $500 Max PL Omaha game, and if I can grasp it with online practice, I can absolutely crush it.

Another thing I'd like to do, if the poker is working out, is make low budget short films and put them online. It's a good way to get your name out there, and if they're good, and the right person sees it, things might develop. I'll also keep writing my scripts and enter them into competitions, see if anything clicks.

Another thing I can do is help my mother clean out my house. We've got a lot of junk, and some of it can be sold on eBay, make a few extra bucks on the side while cleaning up my house.

Then there's writing on my Red Sox blog. I feel like if I really focused on it, I could make $5,000+ off it in a year, instead of the $1,000 or so I'm making off it now.

The ultimate goal is grad school. I'd love to go to USC or Columbia for producing, neither school will be all that easy to get into, and neither school will be cheap. And they also won't be cheap to live in, either. It's also somewhat important that I not be scrimping and saving while I'm there. I think it is helpful to have a flashy image, drive a nice car, wear nice clothes, go out to nice places. This costs money. But if you pull up to a meeting in a nice car, wearing nice clothes, people have more confidence that you can get things done. Which is what producing is all about.

Now if poker doesn't work out, I still have options. The military might be the best one to get money for grad school. My brother's going to get some $$$ from the Army once his service is up. It'll be interesting to see which branch will allow me to do what since I have fallen arches, but they all seem pretty desperate for personnel with Mr. Bush's war going on. Combat wouldn't be something I'd try to avoid in my duties. I feel like a jerk because poor kids have no choice but to join up and fight, and middle class kids like me have other options.

I spent 13 years in Catholic school, the Marines should be a breeze compared to that.

Just kidding.

Long Drive

Friday morning I left Norwood for Ithaca. I had planned on leaving early in the day, with a stop at Turning Stone.

I woke up at 6:30 AM, which wouldn't be so bad had I not been up until 4:30 AM. This tends to happen to me. When I drink, I get very little sleep. I went to the Bruins game on Thursday and had a couple of Sam Adams, finally going to bed at 4:30 AM.

I felt like shit. I was tired, with a splitting headache. I gulped down a glass of water, drove to the nearby Mobil station, and picked up some Gatorade to replenish my system. Unfortunately, the cute girl who has a crush on me wasn't working there. In fact, I went to that Mobil four times during my short stay in Norwood, and she wasn't there a single time. Truly a shame. Maybe she got a new job.

I drank my Gatorade, and decided that driving 380 miles on 2 hours of drunk-sleep was a bad idea. Instead of getting something to eat and some caffeine, I decided it would be prudent to go to sleep.

I woke up at about 11:30 AM. I took a shower. Then I noticed it was snowing outside. It wasn't too bad, though. My road seemed fine and the snow was barely sticking. I figured it was a local storm, something coming from Quebec, or maybe a squall off the ocean. Stupidly, I didn't check weather.com to see how bad the storm was, et cetera.

I left my house at around noon. I drove to Quincy to open an account at Citizen's Bank. Long story short, one of my friends works there, and they get a bonus for each new account they refer to the bank.

The drive there was troublesome. I drove over I-95 to see what the road conditions were, and it was a mess. I decided to take Route 1 up to 128 and go that way to Quincy. Route 1 is usually pretty well plowed, and the driving is slow anyway without any snow. And if any road would be plowed, it would be 128, the ring that wraps around Boston like a wheel.

128 wasn't so bad. The biggest problem wasn't the snow, it was the other drivers. The road was wet, and there were spots of slush, but nothing that would warrant driving 15 miles below the speed limit in the fast lane. By the way, 128's speed limit is 55 MPH, which means it's 70 MPH. But these fuckers were doing 40 MPH. Very dangerous, because traffic gets bunched up.

Finally, I arrived at Quincy Center, opened my account, and got back onto the highway. The snow was coming pretty good now and driving up to the interchange with I-90 was no picnic. The snow got heavier the further north I went.

I got on the Pike, and traffic seemed to be sparse and flowing. That nice little illusion lasted for about 5 minutes as I found myself in gridlock at 1:30 PM on a Thursday in Natick on I-90. No accident or anything, just scared drivers.

The 50 mile stretch between I-95 and I-84 was tedious and nerve racking. It took 90 minutes. Traffic was just refusing to go at a decent pace.

Finally when the road split at I-84, there was some relief. Of course, by this time, I'm in Western Mass, up in the foothills of the Appalachians, where the snow falls in buckets, and plows are few and far between.

This is when I started to notice the spun out cars on the side of the road. I wish I had started counting them because the total number of disabled and deroaded vehicles I witnessed was staggering.

But I was still going at a good clip, about 50 MPH in the snow. It took me 3 hours to reach Lee Plaze, 8 miles from the NY border. Lee is embedded in the Berkshire Mountains, and the snow was really bad. I got some gas, some mini-muffins, and cleaned my car just a bit. It was then I noticed that my front valence (the front bumper) was absolutely ensconced in frozen brown slush.

I crossed into New York. By this time, I figured getting to Ithaca might take me a much longer time than the 5 1/2 hours I'm used to. The number would probably be 7 or 8 hours. I began calling people and asking them to check the weather for me. You see, there are two ways to get to Ithaca. One can take I-90 west all the way to Syracuse, then take I-481 to I-81 down to Cortland, then 13 to Ithaca. Or, one can get onto I-88 just west of Albany, take that to Bainbridge, get on 206 through Chenango County, then take 79 at Whitney Point to Ithaca. The I-88 route is 40 miles shorter, but the backroads are very hilly and difficult to traverse in snow. I-90 to 81 is a much easier way to drive in bad weather.

I found out that snow covered pretty much the entire state, so driving through Syracuse was my best option.

The roads around Albany were decent, but once I got a few miles west, they were shit. It was getting dark, the snow was getting worse, and the roads were untouched by plows. I was forced to reduce speed to 38 MPH.

Finally, a truck passed me. Trucks can go very fast in the snow. They have excellent traction because they're extremely heavy, have eight-wheel drive, and their mass is spread out onto the road in 18 locations in a very large rectangle. This is contrary to my car, which is very light (so it moves around a lot), has two wheel drive, and its mas sis spread out in a very small square on the road.

Trucks also create huge tracks in the snow. I got behind the truck and rode its tracks. I was able to cruise at 45 MPH. I was able to do this for 50 miles or so. But then, the truck pulled off into a rest stop. I was back on my own.

Here's the thing about unplowed roads. When a road is covered in virgin snow that hasn't been touched, it isn't very difficult to drive through. You can't go too fast, but you can maintain control at speeds upwards of 60 MPH, even if there's 4 or 5 inches on the ground. But if the snow has been driven through, it is incredibly difficult to navigate.

When dozens of cars have driven through snow at different times, the snow becomes very rough. There are numerous grooves that interlock, cut each other off. There are thousands of little bumps that take your wheels off the road, and countless little channels in the snow that guide you out of control.

The road had been well-traversed, but with no single discernible groove. I brought my speed down to 32 MPH. Other cars were going faster than me, but most were 4 wheel drive SUVs, or cars that don't have incredibly old tires like my car does (38,000 miles on them already).

I was 40 miles away from Turning Stone, but decided to stop and take a break. A few plows had pulled onto the road behind me, about a dozen miles or so to my rear. I figured a pit stop would be a good way to allow them to pass me and give me a clean stretch of road to drive on. It worked. I was able to go 43 MPH on the snowy roads around Utica, and eventually I arrived at Turning Stone. It took me 8 hours to drive the 280 miles to get there.

I played poker for 4 hours, hoping that by the time I stopped, the plows would have caught up with clearing the road. I was partially right. I-90 was relatively clean. I got onto I-481, which usually isn't well plowed. But as I pulled out of the toll booths, a plow pulled right in front of me. I followed it for 10 miles or so.

Unfortunately, this plow was making my drive harder than it could have been. Although the road underneath me was relatively clear, the massive cloud of snow kicked up by the plow was really difficult to drive through. The incessant blinking of its yellow warning lights was also giving me a headache. The plow was also going very slow, about 22 MPH. I passed it. The road was covered in snow, but few grooves had formed. I was able to maintain a nice 40 MPH speed.

I-81 was a similar story, but I knew I was getting closer to home. For stretches, I was able to get up to as fast as 55 MPH.

Route 13 in Cortland was a mess. Absolutely no effort to plow it whatsoever. But it's relatively flat between Cortland and Ithaca, and I was able to go 45 MPH. that is until I came upon a tentative driver going 22, but after I passed him (which I rarely, if ever do in the snow), I was able to go my desired speed.

I figured Ithaca would be messy, but still manageable. The City usually does a decent job of plowing during a storm. I was wrong. Driving down from Cayuga Heights was nerve wracking. If not for my experience playing World of Outlaws (a video game involving driving race cars on dirt), I would have spun out. The bottom of the hill was shitty, as well. A sudden red light on 13 forced me to hit my brakes, which took their time responding. I got a sharp cramp in my foot from the struggle the brakes had.

Going up the hill was going to be the hardest part. I had driven 385 miles, but the last mile was the most difficult. I wiggled and slid up the hill. Hudson Street was nearly impossible. I don't think my car was pointed straight at all.

I finally reached the top of the hill, and slid around the turn on Coddington. Two guys were walking up the hill and decided that this time was the best time to wander into the middle of the road. With the rear end of my car sliding to my right, I successfully slid through the turn, my front bumper coming within 2 feet of one of the guys. They didn't seem to notice or care. I drove down Pennsylvania and pulled into my parking lot.

The driving took a total of 11 hours, plus a 4 hour stop at Turning Stone. I had left my house at noon, and didn't get to my apartment until 4 AM. I drove by at least 25 spin outs and accidents, not including ones that were on the other side of the road.

I am the best driver in the snow in this part of the country.

A Thought

Why is it that bathroom doors typically have locks, but bedroom doors don't? I understand that when you're in the bathroom, you want privacy, and you're vulnerable. You're either going to the bathroom or in the shower, most likely. However, in the bedroom, you're asleep, which is even more vulnerable of a position in which to be.

Also, the bedroom is where you keep most of your valuable stuff. A computer, your wallet, pretty much anything you spent a lot of money on that isn't a TV is in your bedroom. But you don't get a lock to protect it, or protect yourself whilst sleeping. But if you want to poop with impunity, the bathroom is well protected.

Lotto Addiction Pays Off

No, I didn't win the $370 million. I did, however, have 2 matching numbers, and the Mega Ball (I love that term, Mega Ball) on the same ticket, which means I win $10. Ship it. That's an 844:1 odds against victory. That's like playing roulette with 844 numbers, and only a 10:1 payout. Bad bet.

The real winner of the lottery is the government. Do you realize how much money they clean up on this thing? First of all, they tax about half of the winnings. And I'm sure that not every cent they take in from ticket sales goes to the prize pool or promoting the lotto. Then let's say you want to give some of the money away, more than likely with such a tremendous sum, they're going to tax that gift, too. Let's say I had won, and wanted to give my brother $1 million. The government would probably take at least $350,000 of that, probably more. Let's say you invest the money (the smartest thing to do), the government will receive taxes on your capital gains. If you have a $10 million mutual fund, earning 6% interest, the government is going to tax the money you make from the investment. Let's say you buy or start a business, the government will tax every transaction you make. Let's say you buy a car, you have to pay excise tax on it. Let's say you buy a shitload of stuff from Best Buy, you're going to be paying sales tax. Let's say you buy a house, you're going to have to pay property taxes.

In short, lotteries run by the government are nothing more than legalized gambling, existing in a monopolistic state (no-one can legally run other lotteries), with a massive vigorish (vigorish=the fee paid for placing the bet) if you win, and little chance to actually win.

Still, it's fun. And actually, the odds of the jackpot were justifiable for buying a ticket. The odds of hitting the jackpot are 175,711,536:1 with a 370,000,000:1 payout. BUT, that doesn't include taxes, and your winnings may be split. There were 2 winners of Mega Millions, so the real payout odds turned out to be 185,000,000:1. And that's before taxes, and if the amount is taken as an annuity, and not a lump sum.

Lottery Addiction

I don't gamble. I don't gamble because I'll get addicted to it. I played one hand of Black Jack at Turning Stone once, got dealt 20, dealer hit 21. But after the hand, I wanted that rush again. It seemed so easy to win, all you have to do is get lucky, and hope the dealer doesn't get lucky. That rush of hitting 20, knowing that odds are, the dealer won't beat that, then the crushing 21 being hit, then the nearly overwhelming desire to play again, to make up for that loss...it's too easy to get addicted.

I played Black Jack another time at a card club on the NY/PA border, but that was during the Super Bowl, and I would have played poker if I could have been able to watch the game from the table. The hands were only $2 each, and I knew the $20 I set aside would be eventually lost, so any notion of me winning was put aside.

I play poker a lot, but that is not gambling, not if you're good at it anyway. I have a strategy that wins, and skills that allow me to make proper decisions. Example: folding pocket Queens when someone has Aces, calling with 3rd pair and a 2 kicker when someone is betting their flush draw.

I am addicted to lottery tickets, which is gambling. But I know I will not win anything, ever, most likely. Whenever MegaMillions is over $100 million, I always buy a ticket. Whenever it is over $300 million, I buy 5 tickets. Tuesday, the drawing is for $355+ million. I have 6 tickets (Hess gave me a 6th one for free). I enjoy thinking of the things I could do with that money. Buy a house on Cape Cod for my mother, pay all my tuition and loans, go to grad school, play the $300 Min game at Turning Stone, go to Best Buy with an 18 wheel truck and buy all sorts of shit, open a DP Dough type of place in Boston for the college kids to drop $6.50 on calzones at 2 AM, fly to London, get season tickets to the Red Sox, shit buy a small part of the Red Sox, start a retirement fund, start a production company, buy a parking permit, get a souped up V8 for my car, and so on.

I won't win, the odds are ridiculously high against it. But if I didn't buy the ticket, I'd always think "What if...?" And there's no disappointment when the numbers I have aren't even close to the winning numbers. The odds of winning any prize are 40 to 1. Those are the same odds of flopping three of a kind with a pocket pair, and then turning or rivering four of a kind. Not a great investment. But I can dream. And I can satisfy my lust for action, which might otherwise be satisfied at a $20 Black Jack table, where I'd probably lose more money, and if I did get lucky, win a lot less.

Norwood

I returned to The Commonwealth this weekend. What would posses me to drive 380 miles each way, back and forth a week before spring break? And what would posses me to leave CNY when Turning Stone has a tournament weekend?

Well, it's my mother's birthday today. And my brother went to basic training on Wednesday. He's going into Military Intelligence for the Army as a linguist...or so he says. I mean, if he really were going to become some sort of Intel operative, changing Central American governments, rigging elections in Southeast Asia, and hiring terrorists as contract agents; what more perfect cover would there be as a guy supposedly translating Arabic?

So anyway, my mother has never had a birthday during which one member of the family wasn't around. When my brother was at college, I was at home. When he was at home, I was at college. so I thought it'd be nice.

I got her The Departed, which she hasn't seen yet. She asked for the full screen version. I prefer wide-screen, but full-screen does kind of seem like you're not using your entire television.

I haven't been home since early January. The weather is fucking nice. It's 58 degrees and sunny. I understand that it is nice in Ithaca, weather.com says it is 41 degrees out. That is nice for Ithaca. But my weather is better right now.

I forgot how many Dunkin Donuts there are around here. I went to Best Buy earlier today. I passed by one near Park Place. About a mile down the road, I passed another one attached to a Citgo. Then there's one by the East Street bridge about 2 miles up Route 1. Then another mile and a half down the road is another one. Then across from Best Buy is another one. Best Buy is just under 7 miles from my house, and I passed by 4.

Because I'm bored, I went to Dunkin Donuts web-site and did a little legitimate research with their store calculator. There are 15 Dunkin Donuts locations within a 5 mile radius of my house. There are well over 30 within 10 miles. There are 7 locations in Norwood alone. That's about one location for every 4,000 people. That's a good Dunkin Donuts to people ratio.

I was smoking a cigarette on my front porch, and heard singing. My neighborhood's pretty quiet, very suburban, very little out of the ordinary goes on outdoors. About the only oddity is that my neighbors across the street have a bit of a quasi-farm. They have chickens, a rooster, lots of dogs, a few horses, and a donkey. The donkey is extremely loud at times. So anyway, I hear singing coming from down the street. But it doesn't sound like English. Then I see this guy, about my age, walking down the street, singing the refrain of "Du Hast" by Rammstein. Willst du bis zum tod der scheide, Sie lieben auch in schlechten tagen...Nein! I noticed he was wearing the white headphones of an iPod, and I figured once he realized I was standing on my porch, he'd probably quiet up. Nope. He kept signing. And he wasn't even singing the entire refrain, just those two lines from it. It was Ithaca weird, but in Norwood.

Last night, the drivers on 128 were an embarrassment to Massachusetts drivers. They'd tailgate, OK so far, then pass, doing fine, then slow down in the middle of a pass! I was doing 67 on 128, a decent clip, but hardly deserving of the fast lane, and these fuckers to the side of me would pull up, then go the same fucking speed as me. Then I'd have to manoeuvre like the Red Baron on speed to get around slower traffic, using 4 lanes when there were 3, using all the driving skills in my arsenal. Really, fucking shameful that these guys had Massachusetts plates on their cars.

Oscars

Last night was the Oscars, and I really could care less about them.

All my fellow film students were abuzz in recent weeks regarding who would win what, who should win what, who should have gotten nominated. Phrases like the following were overheard:

"I hope Marty gets an Oscar."

"Babel didn't deserve to be nominated"

"I hope Little Miss Sunshine wins"

It struck me as somewhat odd that a bunch of college students would be emotionally involved in the Oscars. I bluntly asked one of my classes "Why do you care if a movie wins or loses?" I didn't really get any good answer. Essentially, if people liked a movie, they wanted to see it recognized by the Academy. My professor had a decent answer.

"Well, why do you care if the Patriots do well or not?"

Good comeback, but I replied "If the Patriots win, it's because they directly beat their competition by scoring more points than them. It isn't as if some committee decides that the Patriots are winners."

I think I make a good point. The Oscars are awarded by opinions, specifically the opinions of people you and I have never met. Moreover, any person who watches the Oscars knows that the best movie/actor/actress/writer/director/sound technician doesn't always win. They're "political" in nature, often given for "political" reasons.

The Oscars, to me, are an opportunity for egocentric actors, actresses, writers, directors, and producers to pat themselves on the back, reward themselves for doing their job, and spend the night getting hammered. From a production standpoint, winning an Oscar means money, especially if the film had a quiet release, and very few people really heard much about it.

I do have to admit that The Departed winning Best Picture was nice. It is the first movie primarily set in Boston to win Best Picture since the Oscars first started. I think, not sure.

Good Will Hunting got screwed by Titanic in 1997. But combine Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio, and you get an Oscar.

Ilha Das Flores

Ilha Das Flores (Island of Flowers) is a Brazilian short film made in 1989. Oddly enough, it's been shown to me in both fiction film theory, and non-fiction film theory. I've got to say it's one of my favorite movies. It's so poignant, and convincing, and well made. It has a very powerful message that is conveyed perfectly, with subtlety and extreme cleverness.

I've seen the English version with English narration. The original version was, of course, narrated in Portuguese. I found a Portuguese narrated version online, with English subtitles. The images tend to change quickly so multiple viewings may be in order, because the narration and imagery go tightly together. But it's only about 12 minutes, so watching it twice is not a hassle. And it's fucking worth it.

Click here, then click on the link for English. Then click on the sidebar link for Documentaries. Then click on the picture next to Island of Flowers.